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BASF: Stifel upgrades stock, raises TP

( - Stifel has upgraded BASF shares from 'hold' to 'buy', with a target price raised from E47 to E59.

The analyst believes that the modest forecast for 2024 and the weak trading conditions announced for Q1-24 are already priced in.

Stifel now anticipates gradual but steady signs of improvement.

The broker says that 2024 will remain a difficult year, but that trends are reversing, with mid-cycle targets indicating upside potential.

For 2024, Stifel estimates that EBITDA margins for Verbund should be 17%, >23% for Agro and >15% for Coatings.

Adding Automotive Catalysts, the ambition derives from Group EBITDA of E13bn, Stifel estimates, compared with E7.7bn in 2023.

Furthermore, "We assume that group EBITDA can reach E9.5bn in 2025 and E11bn in 2026. In both years, the new Verbund site in Zhanjiang should contribute positively to EBITDA".

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