CAC40: limited gaps ahead of US inflation figures

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse started the session on a positive note on Wednesday morning, but with US inflation figures only a few hours away and the ECB meeting just around the corner, spreads are likely to be relatively limited.
The CAC40 index is trading at around 8095 points, up 0.6%.

After the procrastination of the last few days, the second half of the week is set to be a busy one, with several important events on the agenda, in particular the US consumer price figures due to be published this afternoon.

This statistic is particularly closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and should help determine when it will start cutting rates, a prospect that has largely contributed to the rise in equity markets this year.

In this respect, the vigorous indicators recently published across the Atlantic have been freshly welcomed by investors worried that the central bank will postpone the start of its monetary easing.

The trend is still bullish, but the market is lacking a bit of drive", admitted Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM, this morning.

The markets seem to be counting less and less on a rate cut in June, and now favor the scenario of a first reduction in the cost of money in the third quarter, i.e. in July at the earliest.

Christopher Dembik warns: "It goes without saying that the consumer price index figure will be closely scrutinized by operators to determine whether this timetable should be revised.

The economists' consensus forecast a slowdown in core CPI inflation to 3.7% year-on-year in March, compared with 3.8% in February.

"Today's data looks crucial, because if it comes out above expectations for the third month in a row, it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to explain that this is just a passing anomaly", says Jim Reid, market analyst at Deutsche Bank.

The US inflation figures will be followed tomorrow by the ECB's monetary policy announcements, which are unlikely to lead to any concrete decisions until there is clearer evidence that the disinflation process is continuing.

Other indicators on the weekend's menu include US inflation figures: industrial producer prices, due tomorrow, followed by import prices on Friday.

Investors will also be watching for the kick-off of the US corporate earnings season, which will be given as usual on Friday by the major banking groups JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

According to analysts, good surprises would be likely to encourage a recovery in the equity markets, which seem to have lagged somewhat since the end of March after their hot start to the year.

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