CAC40: will try to preserve 8000 as US rates retreat

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris Bourse (+0.
8%) sees its lead melt away in the wake of Wall Street, which sees its initial gains (+0.5%) evaporate in their entirety, as US indices return to equilibrium (Nasdaq loses 0.2%, S&P500 and Dow Jones try not to sink into the red).

Despite a fall of 8.040 to the 8,000 mark, the CAC40 is outperforming the other European markets, thanks to LVMH (+3%), which is dragging Hermes (+2.3%) in its wake: the Euro-Stoxx50 is gaining just 0.2% to 4,925 (slowed by ASML's -5% fall), while Frankfurt and London are gaining only +0.3% to +0.4%.

Indices seem unaffected by the reappearance of a strong selling trend in bonds since the beginning of April, reinforced by Jerome Powell's latest comments (on Tuesday), which seem to rule out the prospect of a rate cut in June and suggest that only 2 easings would be on the agenda in 2024.
Rates would therefore remain above 5.25% for another 6 months, a zenith synonymous with ever-increasing debt servicing.

With economic indicators in the US surprisingly on the up, market participants are focusing on the resilience of the economy, which would offset the disappointment on the money front.

Investors want to continue believing that yields - now at their highest level for 15 years - will cause only limited damage to the real economy.

The surge in the yield on US ten-year Treasuries above 5% last October (the US 2-year is back in this zone, at 4.9700%) had, for the record, resulted in a consolidation phase for the world's stock markets.

Ten-year paper, which had reached five-month highs yesterday, eased -finally- by -4pts to 4.62% (comparable level at end-November 2023).
On the European bond market, benchmark yields are easing slightly: the ten-year German Bund is down slightly (-2Pt) at around 2.467%, our OATs are down -2.3Pt at 2.9800%, while Italian BTPs are faring better with 4.5Pts at 3.8650%.

Investors also want to focus on the corporate earnings season, which is currently in full swing.

Dutch semiconductor giant ASML reported unsurprising first-quarter results this morning and confirmed its annual forecasts, but announced a 5% increase in its dividend: sales disappointed, however, and the stock lost as much as -5%.

By contrast, the day's economic agenda was relatively quiet.

Final inflation figures for the eurozone for April were published in the morning. According to Eurostat, it stood at 2.4% in March, versus 2.6% in February, thus confirming its flash estimate for last month, while the European Union's figure fell from 2.8% to 2.6% month-on-month.
On the FOREX, the Euro is up 0.22% at 1.0640, while the $-Index is down -0.1% at 106.25.
Brent crude oil is down -0.9% at $89.3, while the ounce of gold remains close to its highs at $2,390, and the ounce of silver is holding steady at $28.7.

In the UK, inflation eased to 3.2% annualized in April, from 3.4% in March, paving the way for a future rate cut by the Bank of England.

On the French stock front, Oddo BHF reiterated its 'outperform' rating on LVMH (+3.5%) with a price target raised from 835 to 857 euros, suggesting a 12-month upside potential of around 10%, the day after the world's number one luxury goods company released its quarterly trading update. LVMH posted sales of ?20.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing organic growth of 3% (-2% on a reported basis).


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