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Airbus: Oddo's forecasts for Q3

( - Oddo believes that Airbus' Q3 2019 publication will not reveal any major surprise, with the broker expecting a 10.
1% decline in adjusted EBIT to 1,416 million euros.

The broker estimates that Airbus Commercial's adjusted EBIT will fall by 7.6% to 1,361 million euros, meaning a margin of 11.4% (-93 bp), including a strong negative volume effect penalised by the delivery of 28 A320 less than in Q3 2018 (including 20 ceo and 8 neo), while A330 deliveries have progressed by 4 units and A350s by 3 units, the broker says.

In terms of FCF, analysts believe that weak volumes in Q3 and storage relative to deliveries expected in Q4 will weigh on the group's WCR and lead to cash burn of 982 million euros (against -201 million euros in Q3 2018).

The broker confirms its Neutral rating on the share, along with its target price of 115 euros (vs. current share price of 120 euros). It says that a greater visibility in terms of production, as well as clarifications on the company's strategy in terms of capital allocation are factors that could enable it to resume a bullish trajectory once again.

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