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CAC40: closes at day's high, lifted by luxury goods

(CercleFinance.com) - The Paris stock market ended the day at its highest level ever (+2.
14%, at 7,634 points), benefiting from a surge in the luxury goods sector, with +9.1% for LVMH, +6.2% for Kering and +4.9% for Hermès.

The sector was buoyed by Richemont's record results - nine-month sales of 16.2 billion euros, up 3% (+4% at constant exchange rates) - which rekindled hopes of a recovery in the luxury sector.

On Wall Street, there was very little movement on the US indices, with zero scores for the S&P500 and Dow Jones, while the Nasdaq lost 0.2%.

On the statistics front, it was a busy day in the USA: US retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, according to the Commerce Department, half the sequential +0.8% in November.

Excluding the sometimes volatile automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales also rose by 0.4% last month, whereas Bank of America had forecast a 0.6% increase.

On the employment front, the Labor Department announced that 217,000 new jobless claims had been registered in the United States.000 new jobless claims in the US in the week to January 6, up 14,000 on the previous week.

But activity in the manufacturing sector is recovering vigorously (with a historic rise in the 'Philly-FED', the strongest since June 2020) in the Philadelphia region, according to the index calculated by the local Fed, which rose from a revised reading of -10.9 in December to +44.3 in January, its highest level since April 2021.

Among the components of the overall index, the new orders (+47 points to 42.9) and current shipments (+39 points to 41) indices are once again advancing strongly, reaching their highest levels since November 2021 and October 2020 respectively.

On the inflation front, import prices rose by 0.1% in December for the third consecutive month, a figure which shows that inflationary pressures now seem to be better under control in the USA... but beware, the devil is in the detail.

The Labor Department points out that import prices have not risen by more than 0.1% since April 2024.

However, energy prices rose by 1.4% last month, driven by higher oil and natural gas costs, their biggest increase since April.

Food and beverage prices also accelerated in December, rising by 2.8% compared with 1.4% in November.
On an annualized basis, i.e. over a rolling 12-month period, import prices posted a 2.2% gain, their biggest increase since December 2022.

In Europe, the inflation rate in Germany, as measured by the retail price index harmonized to European standards (HICP), was confirmed at 2.8% year-on-year in December, announced Destatis, the Federal Statistics Office, on Thursday.

There was little reaction to the publication of the minutes of the December 12 meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which resulted in a fourth rate cut in the space of six months.

The institution's President, Christine Lagarde, expressed concern at the downside risks to eurozone growth.

After their sharp fall of -10pts on average the previous day, bond markets are trying to find a new equilibrium: 10-year T-Bonds are down 5pts to 4.60%, our OATs are down -3pts to 3.33%, and Bunds are also down -1pt to 2.51% (i.e. an unchanged spread of 82 basis points).

While the latest US inflation figures are reassuring, investors may prefer to remain on the defensive pending Donald Trump's inauguration, scheduled for Monday.

At the start of the week, the teams at Cogefi, a Paris-based portfolio management company, warned that 'it is likely that the 2025 stock market year will begin in earnest on January 20'.

Crude oil prices soared yesterday, with a barrel of US light crude trading just above $80 for the first time since last summer.
Brent crude gave up 2.4%, around $80.5, after testing $82.5 yesterday, for the 1st time since July 25 and August 12, 2024.

Gold also woke up to lower rates, and broke back through the $2,700/Oz barrier, up 2% in 24 hours to $2,719.

Finally, the euro remained broadly stable against the greenback, at $1.03/E (+0.1%).

In French company news, Alstom reports that it has signed a new agreement with Metrolinx for the overhaul and modernization of 181 double-decker suburban train cars for GO Transit, the public transport service in Canada's Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

TotalEnergies announced that its European refining margin indicator had recovered to $25.9 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $15.4 in the third quarter, an increase that should be reflected in downstream results and cash flow.

Finally, on Thursday, Stellantis reported a 9% drop in vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024, mainly due to North America, where the automotive group is struggling to clear its inventories

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